Guyana

Guyana's Oil in Brief

Guyana, on South America's northern coast between Venezuela and Suriname, produced no crude oil at all before December 2019. By November 2025 its output had passed 900,000 barrels per day (b/d), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's December 17, 2025 analysis, after ExxonMobil's Yellowtail project reached full capacity (checked October 2026). The EIA estimates that Guyanese crude production increased ten-fold from 2020 to 2025, averaging about 750,000 b/d in 2025, after growth of about 130,000 b/d in 2025, and it forecasts a further 140,000 b/d of average growth in 2026. Every barrel comes from a single offshore block, Stabroek, in the Guyana-Suriname Basin of the Atlantic Ocean.

The scale of the change shows in the national accounts. Guyana's real GDP grew by 62.3% in 2022, the highest growth rate in the world that year, according to International Monetary Fund figures cited by the EIA in its May 2024 analysis. On September 28, 2026, ExxonMobil announced that cumulative production from Stabroek had passed one billion barrels, less than seven years after first oil. For market context, Guyana's growth barrels are one reason non-OPEC supply keeps offsetting OPEC+ restraint, a dynamic readers can follow on our global oil dashboard, in Brent and WTI price coverage, and in the OPEC+ explainer.

Discovery: How Liza Changed the Basin

ExxonMobil made the first significant oil discovery offshore Guyana in 2015, at what became the Liza project in the Stabroek block, according to the EIA. It ended decades of intermittent exploration in the basin and did so in deep water that earlier operators had not tested at scale.

Since Liza, ExxonMobil and its partners have made more than 30 additional oil and natural gas discoveries in the block, and the EIA's May 2024 analysis cited a most recent estimate of more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable oil and gas. ExxonMobil's September 2026 statement describes the resource base as just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels. These are resource estimates published by the operator and cited by the EIA, not proved reserves booked under securities rules, and they should be read as estimates tied to their source and date.

Commercial production began in December 2019 with Liza Phase 1, about four and a half years after the discovery well. The same development model, subsea wells tied back to a floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), has been used for every project since.

The Stabroek System: One Block, One Operator Group

The Stabroek block is operated by ExxonMobil Guyana, which holds a 45% interest. Hess Guyana Exploration held 30% and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana 25%, as ExxonMobil's August 2025 Yellowtail release lists them. Chevron completed its acquisition of Hess on July 18, 2025, and with it took the 30% non-operating interest, as reported by the Society of Petroleum Engineers' Journal of Petroleum Technology (checked October 2026).

Each development uses an FPSO, which processes the crude, stores it, and loads it directly onto export tankers offshore. There is no pipeline to shore and no domestic refinery in the chain.

Development	FPSO	First oil	Design capacity (b/d)	Source
Liza Phase 1	Liza Destiny	December 2019	Not restated here	Hess 2024 Form 10-K
Liza Phase 2	Liza Unity	February 2022	Not restated here	Hess 2024 Form 10-K
Payara	Prosperity	November 2023	Not restated here	Hess 2024 Form 10-K
Yellowtail	ONE GUYANA	August 8, 2025	About 250,000	ExxonMobil, August 2025
Uaru	Errea Wittu	Targeted by end of 2026	About 250,000	ExxonMobil, September 2026; Hess 10-K
Whiptail	Jaguar	Targeted 2027	About 250,000	ExxonMobil, September 2026; Hess 10-K
Hammerhead	Not named in filing	Anticipated 2029, pending approvals	About 150,000	ExxonMobil, September 2026; Hess 10-K

Sources: Hess Corporation Form 10-K for 2024, filed February 27, 2025; ExxonMobil releases of August 8, 2025 and September 28, 2026 (all checked October 2026). PetroEyes has not restated the design capacities of the first three vessels because the filings checked for this update do not give them; the combined installed capacity after Yellowtail was above 900,000 b/d, per ExxonMobil.

What one project looks like

Yellowtail, the fourth development, shows the scale of each step. When ExxonMobil took the final investment decision on April 4, 2022, it described a $10 billion project with six drill centres and up to 26 production and 25 injection wells, developing an estimated resource of more than 900 million barrels of oil. At start-up in August 2025, the company said the ONE GUYANA FPSO had about 250,000 b/d of capacity and 2 million barrels of storage, and that its crude would be marketed as Golden Arrowhead.

Each new vessel therefore adds roughly a quarter of a million barrels per day in a single step, which is why Guyana's production history looks like a staircase rather than a slope. It also means the timing of a single start-up can move the national annual average by tens of thousands of barrels a day.

The Production Staircase

Date	Production	Source
Before December 2019	Zero	EIA
2020 to 2023	Average annual growth of 98,000 b/d; third-fastest growing non-OPEC producer	EIA, May 2024
Early 2024	645,000 b/d, all from Stabroek	EIA, May 2024
2025 average	About 750,000 b/d (growth of about 130,000 b/d)	EIA, December 2025
November 2025	More than 900,000 b/d	EIA, December 2025
September 28, 2026	One billion cumulative barrels	ExxonMobil
2027 (forecast)	Above 1.0 million b/d after Uaru	EIA, December 2025
2030 (operator target)	1.7 million oil-equivalent b/d from eight developments	ExxonMobil, August 2025

Worked example: checking the billion-barrel milestone

The EIA and ExxonMobil numbers can be cross-checked with simple arithmetic. Suppose output averaged about 750,000 b/d in 2025 and about 900,000 b/d in the first nine months of 2026 (an illustrative assumption close to the November 2025 level reported by the EIA, before any Uaru volumes):

• 2025: 750,000 × 365 = about 274 million barrels.
• January to September 2026: 900,000 × 271 days = about 244 million barrels.
• Together: about 518 million barrels in 21 months.

That implies roughly 480 million barrels were produced between December 2019 and the end of 2024. Given 645,000 b/d by early 2024, and lower rates in earlier years, that is a plausible figure, so the September 2026 milestone fits the EIA's production estimates. The calculation also shows how front-loaded the record is: more than half of all Guyanese oil ever produced came out in the 21 months to September 2026.

Who Buys Guyanese Crude

The EIA's December 2025 analysis says Guyana initially shipped crude mainly to the Americas and Europe and is increasingly exporting to markets in Asia, filling demand previously met by other exporters. U.S. trade data give one measured slice of that picture:

U.S. crude imports from Guyana	Thousand b/d
2024	176
2025	208

Source: EIA, U.S. imports by country of origin, annual (checked October 2026).

Set against the EIA's estimated 2025 average output of about 750,000 b/d, U.S. imports of 208,000 b/d imply that the United States took roughly 28% of Guyana's 2025 production. In the U.S. import table, Guyana's 2025 volume was larger than imports from Brazil, Colombia, Iraq or Venezuela, which is a striking change for a country that was not an oil producer in 2019. Our U.S. oil imports by country explainer shows where Guyana sits among U.S. suppliers.

The remaining roughly 70% goes elsewhere, mainly to European and, increasingly, Asian refiners, according to the EIA. Country-by-country shares for those markets come from customs and tanker-tracking data that vary between providers; this page does not repeat them because the figures checked for this update could not be confirmed against an official source.

Guyana in the Regional and Global Supply Picture

The EIA's December 2025 analysis grouped Guyana with Brazil and Argentina as the three countries carrying non-OPEC supply growth in South America. Together they accounted for 28% of global crude oil production growth in 2025, and the EIA forecast that they would supply 0.4 million b/d of the 0.8 million b/d global increase it expected for 2026, half of the total. Guyana's share of that trio's growth is not separated in the EIA text, but its 130,000 b/d gain in 2025 and forecast 140,000 b/d gain in 2026 make it one of the larger single contributors.

The EIA's May 2024 analysis looked further ahead. If the planned Yellowtail, Uaru and Whiptail projects came online as scheduled, it said, combined production capacity would reach about 1.3 million b/d by the end of 2027, which would make Guyana the second-largest crude producer in Central and South America after Brazil. Yellowtail arrived early, in August 2025, so the first part of that path has held. Uaru's timing now decides the next step.

For oil market readers, Guyana matters for a reason beyond size: its barrels are added by a fixed project calendar, not by price-sensitive drilling. That makes Guyanese growth more predictable than U.S. shale growth, and it arrives regardless of OPEC+ decisions. When the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook or OPEC's monthly report revises non-OPEC supply, Guyana's FPSO schedule is one of the inputs to check.

How to track Guyana in public data

• EIA STEO and Today in Energy: country-level forecasts and commentary on start-ups, as cited throughout this page.
• EIA U.S. import data: monthly and weekly figures for U.S. purchases of Guyanese crude.
• Operator releases: ExxonMobil and its partners announce FPSO start-ups and milestones; partner filings such as the Hess Form 10-K give project lists and expected dates.
• Ministry of Finance: Natural Resource Fund reports show revenue rather than volumes, which is a useful cross-check on production and price together.

None of these sources alone gives a complete monthly production series. Combining the EIA estimate with operator announcements is currently the most reliable public approach.

Fiscal Terms: The 2016 Agreement and the Newer Model

Stabroek is governed by the 2016 production sharing agreement between the Government of Guyana and the contractor group, which the government has made public. The Government of Guyana's Department of Public Information, reporting President Irfaan Ali's press conference on August 19, 2026, summarizes the headline terms as a 2% royalty, cost recovery of up to 75% of production, and an equal 50/50 split of the remaining profit oil between the state and the contractors, with unrecovered costs carried forward. The same release says cost recovery has fallen to about 20 barrels of every 100 produced and puts Guyana's share of Stabroek production at about 39.8%. The full agreement text was not rechecked for this page; the exact definitions in the published agreement govern. The terms, signed before the scale of the resource was known, remain the subject of continuing public debate in Guyana.

Worked example: how the split works (illustration only)

Take a hypothetical month in which Stabroek produces 30 million barrels, and assume the full 75% cost recovery ceiling applies because recoverable costs are still large:

Step	Barrels	Recipient
Royalty at 2% of gross	0.6 million	Government
Cost oil at up to 75%	22.5 million	Contractors
Remaining profit oil (25%)	7.5 million	Split 50/50
Profit oil share	3.75 million each	Government and contractors
Government total	4.35 million (about 14.5%)

Now assume costs have been largely recovered and only 20% of production goes to cost oil:

Step	Barrels	Recipient
Royalty at 2%	0.6 million	Government
Cost oil at 20%	6.0 million	Contractors
Profit oil (80%)	24.0 million	Split 50/50
Government total	12.6 million (about 42%)

The inputs are illustrative, and the exact order in which royalty and cost oil are calculated follows the agreement's own definitions. The point is the sensitivity: the government's share of barrels roughly triples as the cost recovery ceiling stops binding. That is why the pace of cost recovery, not only production growth, drives how much oil revenue Guyana receives, and why the first scenario's 14.5% figure appears in Guyanese political debate. Profit oil and royalty receipts are paid into Guyana's Natural Resource Fund, whose monthly and quarterly reports are published by the Ministry of Finance.

For newer acreage, trade press coverage in 2023, including reporting by OilNOW, described a new model agreement with a 10% royalty, a 65% cost recovery ceiling, an unchanged 50/50 profit split and a 10% corporate tax, applying to blocks from the 2023 licensing round and not to Stabroek. Readers should check the published model agreement for the final wording.

Risks and Constraints

• Single-block concentration: Every producing barrel depends on one block, one operator group, and a small fleet of FPSOs. A long outage on one vessel is a national production event, not a field event.
• The Venezuela controversy: Guyana's maritime space and the Essequibo region are subject to a long-standing territorial controversy with Venezuela, its western neighbour. The dispute predates the oil discoveries but now sits near the country's only producing asset and its exploration frontier.
• Price exposure: Profit oil revenue moves with the crude price. The same staircase that raised revenue quickly can cut it quickly if prices fall before the next FPSOs arrive.
• Absorptive capacity: ExxonMobil reported in August 2025 that Guyanese made up more than 67% of the country's oil and gas workforce and that more than 2,000 local businesses supported the industry. Those figures show real local content, and also how much of the supply chain is still being built.
• Associated gas: Stabroek crude is produced with gas that must be reinjected, used on the vessels, or brought to shore. Each new FPSO adds gas-handling requirements, and the use of that gas onshore is a separate national policy question.

Common Misreadings

• "Guyana has 11 billion barrels of reserves." The 11 billion figure is a recoverable resource estimate in oil-equivalent barrels, including gas, published by the operator. It is not a proved reserves number.
• "Guyana keeps half of the oil." Only profit oil is split 50/50. While the cost recovery ceiling binds, the government's share of total barrels is much lower, as the worked example shows.
• Net versus gross production. Partner company reports use net entitlement volumes. Hess, for example, reported net Guyana production of 186,000 b/d in 2024 in its Form 10-K, which is its share under the agreement, not 30% of gross output.
• Installed capacity versus output. Capacity above 900,000 b/d after Yellowtail does not mean every month runs at that level; maintenance and ramp-up periods reduce the average.

What to Watch Next

1. Uaru start-up, which ExxonMobil targeted for the end of 2026 and which the EIA expects to take output above 1.0 million b/d by 2027.
2. Whiptail in 2027 and Hammerhead in 2029, the next steps toward the operator's 2030 target of 1.7 million oil-equivalent b/d from eight developments.
3. U.S. import data from Guyana, a monthly read on how much of the new supply reaches U.S. Gulf Coast refiners; the EIA weekly petroleum report guide explains where import data sit.
4. Natural Resource Fund reports, for how fast profit oil revenue is arriving.
5. Regional supply: compare with Brazil, whose pre-salt growth is the other large Atlantic margin story, and with the declining Amazon system in Ecuador.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much oil does Guyana produce?

The EIA estimated average crude production of about 750,000 barrels per day in 2025, rising to more than 900,000 b/d in November 2025 after the Yellowtail project reached full capacity. Guyana produced no crude before December 2019.

Who owns and operates Guyana's oil production?

All production comes from the offshore Stabroek block, operated by ExxonMobil with a 45% interest. Chevron holds 30%, acquired with Hess in July 2025, and CNOOC holds 25%.

How big are Guyana's oil resources?

The EIA cited an estimate of more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels of recoverable oil and gas from more than 30 discoveries in the Stabroek block since 2015. ExxonMobil described the resource base as just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels in September 2026.

Does Guyana refine its own crude?

No refining step sits in the Stabroek chain. Crude is processed and stored on FPSOs and loaded directly onto export tankers offshore, so Guyana exports its crude and relies on imported fuels.

When will Guyana pass one million barrels per day?

The EIA expects the Uaru development, about 250,000 b/d of capacity, to push crude production past 1.0 million b/d by 2027. ExxonMobil targeted Uaru's start-up for the end of 2026.

How much of Guyana's oil goes to the United States?

EIA data show U.S. crude imports from Guyana of 208,000 b/d in 2025, up from 176,000 b/d in 2024. Against estimated 2025 output of about 750,000 b/d, that is roughly 28%.

---

References

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026." Today in Energy, December 17, 2025. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66884
2. EIA. "Guyana becomes key contributor to global crude oil supply growth." Today in Energy, May 21, 2024. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62103
3. EIA. U.S. imports by country of origin, crude oil, annual. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbblpd_a.htm
4. ExxonMobil. "ExxonMobil makes final investment decision on fourth Guyana offshore project." April 4, 2022. https://investor.exxonmobil.com/company-information/press-releases/detail/32/exxonmobil-makes-final-investment-decision-on-fourth-guyana
5. ExxonMobil. "ExxonMobil Guyana Begins Production at Fourth Offshore Guyana Project." August 8, 2025. https://investor.exxonmobil.com/company-information/press-releases/detail/1192/exxonmobil-guyana-begins-production-at-fourth-offshore
6. ExxonMobil. Release on the one billionth barrel from the Stabroek block. September 28, 2026. https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/locations/guyana/guyana-newsroom/2026/one-billion-barrels-guyanas-remarkable-journey-continues
7. Hess Corporation. Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, filed February 27, 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4447/000162828025008716/hes-20241231.htm
8. Journal of Petroleum Technology (SPE). "Chevron closes Hess deal; ExxonMobil welcomes new partner offshore Guyana." July 21, 2025. https://jpt.spe.org/chevron-closes-hess-deal-exxonmobil-welcomes-new-partner-offshore-guyana
9. Ministry of Finance, Guyana. Natural Resource Fund quarterly reports. https://finance.gov.gy/quarterly-reports/
10. Department of Public Information, Government of Guyana. "Guyana's share of Stabroek Block oil increases to 39.8 per cent as cost recovery declines." August 19, 2026. https://dpi.gov.gy/guyanas-share-of-stabroek-block-oil-increases-to-39-8-per-cent-as-cost-recovery-declines/

All sources checked October 22, 2026.